CLIMATE CHANGE: AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DROPS EVEN FURTHER BEHIND

The joint announcement by China and the United States on November 12 that they plan to cut carbon emissions substantially has been welcomed as a "game changer".  Many see this as giving real hope that an effective international scheme can be developed at the Paris Climate Summit in December 2015.

The agreement is significant as both China and the US are the world's two largest economies as well as the world's major carbon polluters.  Together they account for around 40% of emissions.

The US has promised to cut its emissions by 26%-28% from 2005 levels by 2025. China expects that its emissions will peak by then - but this may happen earlier than 2030. By 2030 20% of China's energy production will be from renewables. 

Where does this leave the Australian Government?  While various Government Ministers have welcomed the announcement, it is likely that there is considerable embarrassment because Australia is clearly being left even further behind. 

Since it came to office, the current Government has been intent on dismantling all it could of the previous government's measures on climate change – this action extending way beyond abolishing the carbon tax.  The fact that some of the climate initiatives remain in place is primarily because the Senate has blocked their abolition.

Australia's Post-2020 Emission Challenge, a report from the independent Climate Commission  claims Australia needs to commit to much stronger emissions reduction.  The report states:  "Australia's decarbonisation goal should be to achieve a net zero-emissions economy between 2040 and 2050."

This would mean commiting to a marked ramping up of our national goal from 2020.  Will the current government be prepared to make such a commitment at the Paris Summit in 2015?  Their current actions would suggest that is extremely unlikely.

The Australian Government sought to avoid having climate change discussed during the Brisbane G20 talks  because it claimed climate change was not an economic issue. Australia was certainly in a minority with this view.  Some discussion of climate change was inevitable because of the concerns of many of the major countries.

It will be interesting to see how long it takes the dinosaurs leading Australia's government to acknowledge that climate change is a major economic issue. 

It will also be interesting to see how long Prime Minister Abbott will delay taking stronger climate action given that the major polluters are now showing their commitment to strong and effective action. The slowness of many major polluters to act has been used as an excuse by the Abbott Government for its piecemeal and ineffective climate policies. Now Mr Abbott does not have that excuse.

THE WISDOM OF INVESTING IN MORE AUSTRALIAN COAL MINES

Australian-based companies and state governments have made billions from the export coal industry. Australia, the world's biggest coal exporter, is set to double exports by 2020 as there are 89 new projects in the pipeline.  The investment is not only in the mines because servicing this expansion requires development of major infrastructure in the form of rail lines and ports such as the new coal terminals at Abbot Point on the Barrier Reef coastline.

China's coal imports have grown rapidly over the last decade and it now consumes half of the world's coal, obtaining 30% of its needs from Australia. 

Companies making coal investment decisions expect this demand to continue to grow well into the future.  State Governments are also looking to share in the bonanza as the royalties derived from the industry are very important to their tax base.  Just how lucrative this is for Queensland and NSW is shown by their coal royalty incomes for 2008-9 - $1.3 billion for NSW and $3.1 billion for Queensland.

Given the impact that burning coal has in contributing to carbon emissions and thence to climate change, all Australian governments should be working towards phasing out the industry rather than encouraging its major expansion.  It appears that all that the federal and state governments can see are the dollars to be made and the benefits to the state and the national economies. From those anxious to support the expansion of fossil fuel mining the term "the national interest" is frequently quoted as a reason  to have as much develoment of coal reserves as possible and to expedite this development. 

Downsides  such as the impacts on lifestyles and health of those living in close proximity to the huge open cut mines and the devastating effects on natural biodiversity are of minor interest to the  proponents and their government supporters as are the effects of coal use on climate change.

The interests of future generations (sometimes referred to as "intergenerational equity") simply are not relevant to most Australian politicians. Most of them obviously think in the short term - and some clearly still do not accept that climate change is real and that there is an urgent need to do something effective about it.

But aside from these major reasons for re-assessing whether we should continue digging up coal, there is another significant reason for re-assessment.

This has been clearly stated in a recent report Stranded Down Under? Environment-related factors changing China's demand for coal and what this means for Australian coal assets

"It is clear that China's coal demand patterns are changing as a result of environment-related factors and consequently less coal will be consumed than is currently expected by many owners and operators of coal assets.  Given China's current role as the price setter in global and regional coal markets, falling demand will, all things being equal, reduce coal prices.  This would result in coal assets under development becoming stranded, or operating mines only covering their marginal costs and subsequently failing to provide a sufficient return on investment."

Obviously  there are significant risks in going ahead with future mines and the necessary expensive infrastructure.  

Just how carefully have investors and governments considered this?  It would appear that both the federal and various state governments do not see this as an issue.  Obviously many mining developers hold similar views.  Perhaps reality will finally hit when these mining proponents find it difficult to access capital to fund their ventures.

SOME EFFECTS OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS ON CHINA

While Australia ramps up its export of greenhouse gas emissions (coal and gas), at the expense of national icons such as the Great Barrier Reef, spare a thought for the recipients in south east Asia as reported in The Guardian.

According to a Greenpeace-commissioned report by Dr Andrew Gray, a US-based expert on air pollution, emissions from coal plants in China were responsible for a quarter of a million premature deaths annually, and are damaging the health of hundreds of thousands of Chinese children.

The statistics are staggering, with estimates that coal burning in 2011 alone, “led to 320,000 children and 61,000 adults suffering from asthma, 36,000 babies being born with low weight, was responsible for 340,000 hospital visits, and 141 million days of sick leave”.

In Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, pollution levels have repeatedly been off the charts, leading to soaring sales of air purifiers and face masks, with retailers struggling to meet demand. The city of Nanjing recently issued a red alert for pollution for five consecutive days.

It is well known that coal burning, even in modern power plants, produces heavy metal and particulate pollution which, according to the editor of China Dialogue, an independent website that publishes information and debate on the environment in China, is now occurring in China, “on a scale that is getting quite extraordinary”.

Dr Gray reports “while the growth of coal consumption has slowed, 570 new coal-fired plants are either being built or are planned, and if they go ahead would be responsible for a further 32,000 premature deaths each year”.

The Chinese government has announced a plan to tackle air pollution including, for the first time, measures to cut coal consumption by 2017.

So the Australia will have four years of increased production.  Does this justify continuing its plans to increase Hunter Valley air pollution, and spread it to areas like Gunnedah and Boggabri ?   Does it justify polluting the Great Barrier Reef, destroying the critically endangered woodland communities of the Leard State Forest, Bimblebox Sanctuary, and the Pilliga State Conservation Area, along with the threatened wildlife that call those forests home?

-           John Edwards

This post was originally published in the "Voices for the Earth" column in The Daily Examiner on 27 January, 2014.

CARBON DINOSAURS SHOULD WAKE UP

For more than decade, the right wing of politics in Australia has procrastinated over addressing climate change. Time and again a concerned public has been fed the claim that Australia would be wasting its time “going it alone” on pricing carbon, and would only disadvantage Australia's polluters in the world market. 

 

At the same time we are assured that if Australia was to reduce its carbon emission to zero, it would make no difference to climate change because of the relatively small percentage Australia contributes to the world's overall emissions.

These arguments ignore the moral perspective of Australia being the world's highest per-capita polluter, or that Australia is the world's largest exporter of coal, and soon to become the largest exporter of equally polluting unconventional gas.

Since introducing a price on carbon, Australia's Labor Party has been widely pilloried by mining and other polluting industries, and opposition politicians, with the latter vowing to do away with the “tax” if and when it regains power.

But now the first of those arguments is set to be turned on its head. China, the usual target of right-wing finger-pointing when talking pollution, has just launched the world's second largest carbon trading scheme, significantly stepping up its efforts to combat climate change and its own air quality problems (the European Union has the world's largest scheme, covering 2.1 billion tonnes of CO2-e).

China has been indirectly pricing carbon for years, but this pilot scheme will be the first mandatory carbon market in the country, expected to cover around 700 million tonnes of CO2-e by 2014, with plans to implement a national scheme around 2016 which is predicted to result in a reduction in emissions of 4.5 billion tonnes by 2020 from the 2005 base line.

When compared to Australia's 380 million tonnes, and California’s 165 million tonnes, China's figures are impressive, and show what can be achieved if the political will is present. It's time for our political dinosaurs to wake up and follow China's lead, and for the general public to get behind any move towards a clean energy future.

- J. Edwards

This article was the VOICES FOR THE EARTH column published in The Daily Examiner on 1st July.  It appeared under the title: "China plan is wake-up call in push for cleaner environment."